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Storm clouds
Question: Down here on the beach, on Florida's eastern coast, at this time of the year, it is easy to see storm clouds on the horizon. But this is about the ones forming many thousand of miles further easterly. At what is commonly referred to as the Middle East. Where there is an increasing possibility that Israel will turn to a military solution of their neighborhood problems. A policy of assassination is now being pursued, most likely as a test of foreign reactions. Negotiated settlement is going nowhere. And any war of attrition is not to Israel's advantage. That leaves using their superior military strength as a tempting option. They may even decide to do some serious damage to both Syria and Iraq at the same time, with that window of opportunity of unknown duration. It is widely assumed that Saddam Hussein's regime is still trying to develop weapons of mass destruction. And any military defeat could very well tear Syria apart internally and make them have to withdraw from Lebanon. What Ariel Sharon & Co will have to decide is whether the short time unfavorable political considerations are worth the serious setbacks the Palestinians, the Syrians and the Iraqis will suffer. The rest of the Arab world will have very little to throw into that dogfight. Even a new oil embargo could bring about the end of dynastic rule in the Gulf region. There will be extraordinary pressure on the Bush Administration to bust OPEC. By military means if necessary. There is still a vary large IOU being held by Washington, issued by various royal families in that area. A clear sign that the disengagement from world affairs that we have seen from Mr. Bush effecting this, is becoming apparent when the Israeli government is discounting any negative reactions by the US to any military actions. However, Mr. Bush will quickly find himself at the center of this conflict, should it occur. He will not have the time to consider his decisions along the manner of deciding on federal funding of stem cell research. The events will happen fast and furious with nasty political ramifications ensuing regardless of results. There is historical precedence for Israel ignoring the concerns of allies when presented with an opportunity to defeat their enemies. It happened in 1967 with France and in 1973 with the US. Right now the Palestinians, the Syrians and the Iraqi provide ample excuse for military action and, as of now, they do not have the means to adequately defend themselves. That could easily become too tempting for Arik the Warrior. Particularly since the assassination policy is not getting any reaction in Washington, DC. Other than a subdued harrrrrummmph! Lars; on the horizon Answer: Lars-- Your level of understanding of world affairs is commendable, but the way we Americans view this is likely to differ from how Israel's citizens see it. There are many things that Prez Bush must consider, and I sincerely hope he has some of the 'best & brightest' foreign policy experts to assist him. However, for Israel, it is a matter of survival - not just public opinion. Imagine living in Tennessee and each of your neighboring states (eight or nine?) swore to destroy you. If you were constantly expected to give up land for a promise of peace, all that would happen is that you'd have an appeased (and stronger) enemy and your nation would be smaller. The situation is worse if the land 'given up' is of important strategic value. Once it's gone, it's gone. The hostile forces (PLO, Hamas, etc.) acted as aggressors, drew 'first blood' and deliberately sought quick and easy methods to kill as many Israeli civilians as possible. If the Israelis retaliated in kind, they'd lose support of friends and only embolden their enemies. If they were to justifiably target the leaders of the terrorist groups, then they can honestly say (at the very least) that they stood their ground. The blame for this imbroglio lies mostly at the feet of Yassir Arafat. He is one of the people behind this stuff, and the attacks will not cease until he and his underlings order them to. Israel should continue to defend herself by any means necessary. I would expect our nation's leaders to do the same if we came under direct attack from a hostile nation that swore to drive us into the sea. One's own survival outweighs the 'feelings' of your allies, sir. Flying Dutchman; waiting to see what happens Answer: I am not making any judgements about whether Israel should attack their decidedly hostile neighbors. What I see is preparations to do so. What I also see, should it happen, is Mr. Bush being thrown into a rather large briar patch. Undoubtely Mr. Arafat is culpable in creating the conditions for escalation of hostilities. But so are successive Israeli governments that persued their untenuable settlement policy in the occupied territories. But to use some southern states in the US as an analogy, is missing an awful lot of particulars of the situation. And only serve to show the limited abilities of those Americans, that you claim to speak for, to reach beyond their parochial concerns. This has the potential to put a lot of US soldiers and sailors in harms way. That, at least, should be a common concern. My main concern is that should Israel make pre-emptive military strikes, they trade a short term problem for a much longer term one. One that could require long term US military involvement in the area for generations. There is precedence for this too. US presence in Europe has more or less kept the peace there for over 50 years. The longest such interval in the last 2000 years. The US is the only nation that has the means. What could be called for is the political will. And that is where those parochial concerns could get in the way. The same ones that forced the US to stay uninvolved in WWII until it was attacked. Lars; been to Lebanon....in TN Answer: Why not just let both sides kill one another. This is nothing more than a religous war that has been renamed a land dispute. Personally the world would be a safer place if Isreal and Palestain were wiped off the face of the Earth. Answer: Lars-- You took what I said way too seriously. I was not trying to draw any political comparison to the Middle East with the southern USA. It was strictly a geographic allusion - and not that accurate of one, either. Mea culpa, but it was the first thing that came to my mind....as Tennessee is bordered by more states than any other. I was just trying to show how it must feel if the government (and a large majority of its population) of every single bordering state openly admitted they wanted your country eradicated and your people driven into the sea. Apparently, I failed in my efforts. Nevertheless, I understand completely what you say about Bush being thrown "into the briar patch" of this perpetual conflict. One can only hope he has some decent guidance from those knowledgeable about the Middle East and its history. Flying Dutchman; rapidly approaching bedtime P.S. What the heck is Palestain? Is that something you get when you spill white wine on a tablecloth? Answer: The Bush Baby administration has definitely made things worse by disengaging. As long as the prospect was out there (the peace talks) the few moderates left in the Palestinian camp had a promise of hope they could offer as an incentive to peace. To continue to live as paupers is no incentive at all. The incentive has to be there, so immediate they can smell it. The Bush administration has made noises about getting busy when the violence dies down, but they are sticking their heads in the sand with this line. If it were that easy, Clinton would have been cooing over his Nobel Peace Prize long before now. Bush's handlers will either have to realize that decades of violence and hate will not be erased with one simple move or slogan, or watch helplessly while things get worse. It is less easy to call someone the Great Satan if you are constantly having dinner with him. We MUST remain engaged, no matter how often we fail. If a generation is to born in the Middle East that does not see violence and hatred as the order of the day, we have to start trying to make sure now that this generation is being born today. Yes they have had a few wars & if nothing is there to stop them, common sense being even scarcer than water in those parts, they will have some more. We carry a lot of weight.... If we want to. It appears that Bush is more interested in making his campaign contributors rich and slapping Putin on the back, then obviously his enthusiasm for getting involved in difficult issues (to the extent that he can understand them in the first place) is minimal and thus the chances of peace in the region along with it. B Calm; has been to Lebanon....in Indiana Answer: BCalm wrote: The Bush Baby administration has definitely made things worse by disengaging. As long as the prospect was out there (the peace talks) the few moderates left in the Palestinian camp had a promise of hope they could offer as an incentive to peace. To continue to live as paupers is no incentive at all. Few moderates left is an understatement. Although there are some of them still around, they are not calling the shots. It's going to take Yasser Arafat and his minions to make any significant changes. As for "living like paupers," part of that comes from their continual focusing of efforts and resources toward eradicating a nation of people they do not like. It also occurs when a group of people continually choose the wrong leaders. Much as I hate to sound like a Zionist, it is up to the Arabs & Palestinians to effect a change right now. If the terrorist attacks stop, so will the Israeli helicopter strikes against military targest in the Palestinian sections. Stop the wanton bloodshed and it will be easier to get people to the negotiating table. The incentive has to be there, so immediate they can smell it. The Bush administration has made noises about getting busy when the violence dies down, but they are sticking their heads in the sand with this line. If it were that easy, Clinton would have been cooing over his Nobel Peace Prize long before now. Bush's handlers will either have to realize that decades of violence and hate will not be erased with one simple move or slogan, or watch helplessly while things get worse. It is less easy to call someone the Great Satan if you are constantly having dinner with him. We MUST remain engaged, no matter how often we fail. You are correct about remaining engaged, but the bad thing is that the USA will end up as fodder for whichever side 'loses' in the bargaining. It is not a 'win-win' situation, but rather a 'lose small-lose bigger' kind of thing. This stuff has been occurring for many years, and is not likely to get better or cease any time soon. If a generation is to born in the Middle East that does not see violence and hatred as the order of the day, we have to start trying to make sure now that this generation is being born today. Yes they have had a few wars & if nothing is there to stop them, common sense being even scarcer than water in those parts, they will have some more. We shall see; but I remain a guarded skeptic. We carry a lot of weight.... If we want to. It appears that Bush is more interested in making his campaign contributors rich and slapping Putin on the back, then obviously his enthusiasm for getting involved in difficult issues (to the extent that he can understand them in the first place) is minimal and thus the chances of peace in the region along with it. B Calm; has been to Lebanon....in Indiana Again, let's just hope he (Bush - The Shrub) has the fortitude to enlist the help of the 'best & brightest' foreign policy minds. More and more, it seems as if that area of the world is always at war -- and peace breaks out every so often. Flying Dutchman; has been to Lebanon....in Pennsylvania Answer: Flying Dutchman Pennsylvania……BCalm Indiana…….Lars Tennesee……and Job has been to Lebanon, Maine and Lebanon, New Hampshire. Matter of fact, even married a girl from Lebanon, Maine. Answer: U.S. and European interference is precisely why the situation is bad and getting worse. Continually hampering Israeli defense initiatives, and Presidents negotiating such stupidities as Israeli withdrawals from the Golan Heights and Southern Lebanon, have only served to assure Arafat and other Arab groups that the rest of the world will lean on Israel to stop 'aggressions' whenever the terrorist factions and their supporting countries start to lose badly in the wars they play a big part in starting in the first place, thus assuring them they will never lose anything of value, and assuring them that they can attack at will. It's high time the West stopped playing this game and let the Arab leaders and their countries suffer the consequences of being international gangsters. _________________________ I Said I Loved Jesus, And All I Got Was This Lousy T- Shirt... Answer: The Bush Baby Quote or latest Bushism of the day: "My administration has been calling upon all the leaders in the--in the Middle East to do everything they can to stop the violence, to tell the different parties involved that peace will never happen."--Crawford, Texas, Aug. 13, 2001 Answer:
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